I think it will definitely continue for 3 months without a doubt, if people don't take heed it will be extended things are destined to get a lot worse unless a miracle occurs we are only 2 weeks behind Italy, some people simply like to bury their heads in the sand perhaps they haven't yet lost a friend/loved one , but many have it's real & it's happening every day.

If the mortality rate is 3% as they say and roughly 1/2 population were allowed to get this, that would be approx 1 million people that could die. 20,000 estimate is bad enough. Until they can control the spread of it, then the risk of a higher number of deaths remains, so I don't think they'll be relaxing much for ages to come.

Hence why its important for dorks like the one in the video to remain at home.

aaronjb wrote:

That's not what the Deputy Health Minister strongly implied yesterday..

Pufftmw wrote:

If the mortality rate is 3% as they say..

That still seems to be a big if, given the way countries are reporting numbers - for example, in the UK we are only testing people who end up hospitalised (therefore, they're much more likely to pop their clogs than someone at home with minimal symptoms), likewise Italy etc (where it was more like 10% mortality rate but on very limited testing). On the other hand, Germany, where they are testing hundreds of times more people than the UK are currently showing a 0.5% mortality rate.

Then again, I did read that Germany reports the cause of death differently - i.e. they report pneumonia, rather than covid-19 as the cause of death, so they could be mis-reporting their figures in a different way.. unable to corroborate that.

What's the saying about statistics?

There are studies, though, that suggest the CFR is more like 1.1% and IFR more like 0.5%. Of course, if 100% of the UK population became infected, an 0.5% IFR still means 330,000 deaths.


Ah, who knows. All we can do is what they tell us, I suppose. Personally I've withdrawn from everything online, pretty much - got sucked into this one, though, didn't I - because it's an endless sea of speculation, hyperbole, doom and gloom and bad news, stopped reading the news etc, and I reckon the "social isolation" will finish me off before COVID-19 ever has a chance.

[edit] Darn, forgot to link to the paper suggesting 0.5% IFR - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w 2014 BMW 530d Touring, 2006 BMW 650i, 2018 Mini Cooper S

On a lighter note i did win £20 on the postcode lottery